The Dialogue is Dead. Long Live the Dialogue.

Today marks the final session of Bahrain's National Dialogue, which ended on an appropriate note with a special session dedicated to ex-patriot participants. This is appropriate, of course, in that it highlights how ridiculous the whole process was. The end result?: if you would believe the Bahrain News Agency, at least, a set of "recommendations" reached by "consensus" that would "further enhance the powers of the elected parliament." The newest of these measures as per the BNA are the following:

1. "The presence of ministers will be required when MPs debate issues related to their respective ministries"; and


2. "MPs will be able to question ministers during the parliamentary sessions rather than in specific committees. The Parliament will be entitled to initiate discussions on any theme in addition to the agenda."

So, assuming these "recommendations" were to be accepted by King Hamad, ministers would actually have to show up to parliament when issues under their purview are discussed; they can be questioned in the general assembly; and discussions won't be limited to agenda items.

All of which revisions are very nice; but unfortunately none of them even approaches the heart of Bahrain's political impasse, which revolves around the opposition's demands for an elected government, electoral redistricting, and empowerment of the lower house vis-a-vis the Shura Council. If these sound familiar, it is because al-Wifaq has invoked these demands explicitly in the names given to its weekend "festivals." One was a rally for "Fair Districts" and one was for "An Elected Government":



Yet, as the BNA notes, "Delegates did not reach consensus on a number of further suggestions, including whether the Shura Council should be granted the same powers as the Parliament, and whether the responsibility for law-making and oversight should be restricted to the elected chamber." Imagine that. In the end, then, whether or under what circumstances parliament can question ministers is a secondary matter compared to the method of selection of those ministers; the process by which the parliament itself is elected; and whether or not any parliamentary decision regarding the ministers can simply be overturned by the appointed upper house.

Moreover, as discussed previously, the most far-reaching "recommendation" to emerge from the National Dialogue is not even any of these newest ones cited above, but an earlier one. Nearly a week ago the Gulf News reported that "[p]articipants agreed that the king should choose the prime minister who will select his ministers, a change from the current situation where the monarch appoints the prime minister and the ministers." That is to say, more fundamental than the modalities of questioning ministers is the appointment of ministers in the first place, which delegates have suggested be moved from the king's prerogative into the domain of the prime minister.

It is at this point that we would do well to recall the next stage in the National Dialogue, which is codification of some or all--or none--of these suggestions by royal decree from King Hamad. Does anyone want to bet how he will deal with the suggestion to transfer the appointment of ministers to his uncle? (On the other hand, I think it goes without saying that, should he indeed agree to such a concession, one would have to conclude that his intra-family position is even more vulnerable than is now assumed.)

In order to punctuate just how far the National Dialogue failed to resolve any of Bahrain's problems, al-Wifaq and the National Unity Gathering held yet another set of dueling rallies over the past few days. Al-Wifaq's took place on both Friday and Saturday. The former was the latest edition of al-Wifaq's "Our National Demands" festival. Lebanon's Daily Star quotes 'Ali Salman as saying, "Our demands remain the same. An elected government, elected parliament, one vote for each citizen and independent judiciary." The Saturday event featured the heavyweight combo of Sh. 'Isa Qasim and S. 'Abdallah al-Ghurayfi, speaking about the destruction of Shi'i mosques as part of the post-February crackdown.

The counter-rally of the National Unity Gathering, on the other hand, happened Monday night in 'Arad, with organizers claiming a 50,000-strong turnout. The purpose of the meeting, according to one of its organizers in a statement to Al-Watan, was "the issue of the National Dialogue and the positions the Gathering adopted with respect to its overall vision for comprehensive reform in the Kingdom, in addition to its vision for the future." A more cynical view from the Bahrain Mirror is that the gathering aimed to "intimidate other national constituents [i.e., al-Wifaq] who are demanding an elected government." As evidence of this is offered the conspicuous presence of 'Adel Flaifel, a once-feared colonel in the Bahraini state security service relieved of his duties in 2002 after pressure from human rights organizations accusing him of torture.

An intrepid photographer has uploaded some shots from the rally here. While it does not seem to have featured anything as striking as a 20-foot banner with the flags of the U.S., al-Wifaq, Iran, and Hizballah (such as that of two weeks ago in Busaiteen), judging by the posters held by some of the participants, there must have been a healthy dose of U.S.-bashing. We have this guy, for example, with his imaginative and colorful "No to the [U.S.'s] New Middle East" sign.


There also seemed to be a healthy contingent of Saudi flags, as well as a reporter from Al-Arabiyyah. I wonder if anyone from the opposition is decrying this blatant Saudi interference in Bahrain's sovereign affairs?

I for one would have liked to see a nice-sized flag made from the following graphic floating around on pro-government forums and Facebook pages, showing the al-Wifaq logo along with that of the Third Reich. This photoshop, which gives new meaning to the already-terrible term "Islamo-fascism," is part of a new pro-government series with the slogan, "ash-sha'ab yurid isqat al-wifaq." Which is catchy.


The real reason for this article, though, and the inspiration for its title, is speculation--originally reported in CNN Arabic but now given longer treatment at the Bahrain Mirror--that King Hamad is already mulling "a new initiative to solve Bahrain's crisis," hopefully one with a non-zero chance of succeeding. (Of course, aside from any new public "initiative," there are almost certainly discussions ongoing behind closed doors, likely including representatives of al-Wifaq.)

The CNN Arabic story cites

reports that [the king] plans to issue a message to the people of Bahrain before the end of this July that will probably include a new initiative for a new phase of reform.

It continues,

With no clear details of the new political initiative, observers say there are indications that it will include the return of all fired from their jobs without exception, as well as the release of a number of prisoners.

(On this account, note yesterday's high-profile release (Arabic here) of Muhammad Al Bu Flasa, a Sunni (Salafi, no less) who disappeared just hours after giving an anti-government address at the Pearl Roundabout on February 15. His release now comes presumably after his completion of a 5-month terrorist re-education (and de-Shi'ification) program such as the governments in Yemen and Saudi Arabia give to former members of al-Qa'ida.)

Members of the opposition, however, do not seem sanguine about the chances that the king's address in the run-up to Ramadan is likely to go beyond the "visions" (i.e., recommendations) resulting from the just-completed dialogue. The Bahrain Mirror quotes former al-Wifaq MP 'Ali al-'Ashiri as saying in response to the reports,

The visions are obvious things, and probably the king's speech will just include some ready-made points known to them [al-Wifaq] beforehand, like the things agreed to at the Dialogue, such as a review of the electoral districts.

He continues:

The call for dialogue doesn't correspond to the situation in reality and on the street. There needs to be progress toward the political and security situation in the country before the [dialogue] initiative. No initiative can succeed without these preliminary steps, which were absent from the first version of the dialogue.

Whether or not the speculations of CNN Arabic are correct that the king will announce a new dialogue initiative, it is clear that the regime will attempt to persuade observers that the just-commenced Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI) into the post-February crackdown is yet another step down the road toward political and societal reconciliation. Indeed, the Gulf Daily News reports today (in all caps no less) that "ALL WILL BE REVEALED," this according to the prime minister. And the BICI even has its own website, so you know it's really going to get to the bottom of things.

If I may be so bold as to predict the outcome of the investigation, it goes something like this:

1. The government did X, Y, and Z wrong.
2. But the protesters did A, B, and C wrong.
3. So really both sides were partially at fault, and what Bahrain needs is some sort of process to reconcile the two wronged parties (proceed to National Dialogue #2!).
   

And so the saga continues.

Update: for those who have questioned (in the comments) my closing predictions with the argument that the BICI's mission does not extend to violations by protesters, you may wish to see the Bahrain New Agency's coverage of the National Unity Gathering's 'Arad rally, which it uses as an opportunity to not-so-subtly hint at exactly this point. Indeed, the entire coverage of the demonstration highlights only the need for an inquiry into demonstrators' behavior:

Thousands of people braved the heat last night to attend a massive rally in Arad called by the National Unity Assembly.

Its chairman Dr Abdullatif Al Mahmood used the event to welcome an independent inquiry into Bahrain's unrest and urged participants to report any rights violations to its own fact-finding panel, to be submitted to the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry.

An independent inquiry into Bahrain’s unrest has been urged to probe alleged violations by political movements.

That was one of the key messages to out of a rally attended by thousands in Muharraq last night.

It was organized by National Unity Assembly and its chairman Dr. Abdullatif Al Mahmoud said any investigation must look into claims that certain political groups were involved in disrupting health and education system denying key rights to citizens.

So, are we still convinced that my prediction is so off?

Update 2: The king has just given his anticipated pre-Ramadan speech about the Dialogue, the (English) text of which is here. In true Arab Gulf fashion, the only operative paragraph seems to be the following, which announces new economic benefits for public sector employees (rather than, say, political reform):

As we are aware of the economic challenges we have to live with, and as we are keen on upgrading the citizens' standards of living, we ordered the government to take the necessary actions regarding increasing salaries of civil, military and retired government employees and to expedite the other matters pertaining to all citizens' living that have been included within the National Dialogue views.

He also seems to imply that the "reforms" agreed at the Dialogue will indeed be undertaken: "In order for the national consensus views to materialize by activation through our constitutional institutions, we have ordered the executive and legislative authorities to take the necessary actions." But this statement seems somewhat vague perhaps due to translation.

Update 3: The Bahrain Mirror has a good analysis of the implications of the new "reforms"--namely the transfer of the power to appoint ministers to the prime minister from the king. It essentially makes the same point we've been making here.

Civil Society and Democratization in the Arab Gulf

I understand that this may be off topic for those who are interested only in Bahraini politics, but I have a new (co-authored) article in Foreign Policy's Mideast Channel about civil society and democratization in the Arab Gulf, based on new survey data from Qatar. Its main argument is that in the rent-based regimes of the region, where citizens (and organizations) are linked to the state through far-reaching clientelistic networks, the standing notion that civil society tends to lead toward more democracy (or, more specifically, more democratic-oriented citizens) turns out not to be the case.

Palace Wars and Royal Visits

As there seems to be a relative lack of headlines this week following al-Wifaq's withdrawal from the National Dialogue (although there is speculation that Wa'ad may be next; and there is another al-Wifaq "festival" this Friday in al-Musalla, titled "We Are Committed to Our National Demands"), I thought I would highlight an interesting article in the Bahrain Mirror titled "Palace Wars and Their Implications: How Did the National Unity Gathering Overthrow the Crown Prince?" (bad Google translation here). It seems to be the first in a multi-part series, so I will have to keep track of the new ones.

(Of course, if this is not your style, you can always go and read Yusuf Al Bin Khalil's latest offering: "Bahraini Societies Control America," in which he once again goes after the American Studies Center (ASC) of the University of Bahrain. In fact, the entire article revolves around a dinner party--the exact date, time, and location of which he not-so-subtly divulges for anyone who might want to pay it a visit--for ASC graduates organized by a Bahrain Transparency Society, which I'd not previously heard of. Anyway, as you would expect, Al Bin Khalil insists that such a meeting is tantamount to a gathering of American spies, and notes incredulously that despite receiving "official promises from the university administration that the center will see changes" following his previous self-styled exposé back in June, "there seems to be an insistence that the American Madrasah Center [sic!] continue ... to train Bahraini political cadres that will turn into anti-state political activists and rights defenders in the name of freedom and human rights." He asks, "Is the university administration aware of the organization of this event for these students?" Well, is it? IS IT?!@#!?1)

You'll have to read to find out!

Back to the Bahrain Mirror article. Government opponents in Bahrain continue to rue the post-February political exit of Crown Prince Salman, a man who, now at the end of July, is looking very much a welcome alternative to the likes of Al Mahmud and Muhammad Khalid, to say nothing of the three Khalifahs: al-Dhaharani, bin Salman, and bin Ahmad. So too, it seems, does the U.S. miss the moderate, youthful (by Gulf royalty standards), English-speaking, American University-educated crown prince. Indeed, as recently as a month and a half ago, the State Department still held out hope that it could somehow singlehandedly revive his political career. A story in the New York Times proclaimed that "The White House [is] Cultivating a Prince to Coax an Ally to Change." I guess they forgot to ask him whether or not anyone in his family is likely to listen to his political suggestions.

As its name implies, the "Palace Wars" article tells the story of the post-February 14 sidelining of the crown prince and corresponding empowerment of Khalid bin Ahmad (Minister of State for Royal Court Affairs) and his brother "The Marshall" Khalifah bin Ahmad (Minister for Defense and BDF Commander-in-Chief), known together as al-khawalid; along with of course the prime minister. If you are confused by all these family relationships, see the following tree of Al Khalifa ministers (it links to a .pdf), for which I cannot take credit.


More important than the actual exposition of the "Palace Wars" article, though--which in any case is probably of interest mostly to Arabic readers--is the popular sentiment it increasingly represents: the feeling that if any political solution is to be reached in Bahrain, it must inevitably involve Crown Prince Salman, not least because there are seemingly few others within the royal family willing even to sit in the same room as the opposition. Whether or not this is so out of a genuine political moderateness, or mere political expediency--a country ever on the brink of societal conflict cannot seem an inviting prospect for the one who hopes someday to inherit it--the underlying cause makes little practical difference.

The U.S. was on the right track in attempting to "cultivate" a viable political peacemaker in the crown prince. Yet, at a time when association with the United States is almost exactly the opposite of a political asset, it would do better to work its magic from behind the scenes rather than, say, by inviting him to the White House to meet with the president. Its lack of recognition of this fact, to say nothing of the more fundamental fact of the crown prince's current intra-family weakness, spells trouble for American policy in Bahrain. Indeed, it is perhaps not an understatement to say that priority number one for the United States should be working towards the settlement not of the country's outward political crisis, but of its internal family crisis, the persistence of which will make impossible any larger political resolution.

On the subject of Bahrain's personality politics, we may note a few other recent news items. The first of these is another string of royal visits to the majalis of pro-government families, presumably to shore up support for King Hamad. The first was performed by the king's son and "personal representative," Sh. 'Abdallah. According to the Bahrain News Agency,

the bin Dainas, Al-Oraifis, Al-Kindis and Taquis reaffirmed their unwavering support for the measures undertaken by His Majesty King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa to protect the nation and citizens and restore the status of Bahrain as a haven of security and stability, led by the Al-Khalifa.

Just the day before he had met a number of families in Muharraq--the "Al-Murbati family majlis, Bu Hijji family majlis and Syyadi family majlis"--where he "emphasized that the Kingdom of Bahrain will remain strong and solid forever with its loyal people who will always continue the path of development, prosperity and preservation of the divine grace of security and stability."




This follows a personal visit by King Hamad on July 12 to the Al Ghatam in al-Zallaq, where he "laud[ed the] Al-Ghatam family's dedication in serving their country and contributing to its progress and prosperity."

And prior to this was a visit on July 6 to the majalis of the Al Sabt and Al Sindi; and on July 4 to those of our friend Muhammad Khalid, Safouq Khalaf, and Jamal Dawad.





Not to be forgotten, finally, are the previous visits to the Al Musallem and Al Mahmud in al-Hidd that we noted in June. Isn't it strange that no member of the royal family has the time to make an appearance at the National Dialogue, supposed to contain a representative cross-section of Bahraini society, and yet in the past month various members including the king himself have made repeated stops at the homes of individual families? It is almost as if prominent, tribally-allied families in Bahrain have better political access than do ordinary citizens and members of actual political societies. But that couldn't be right.

Not to be outdone, the prime minister is aiming to receive the entire ex-patriot community of Bahrain--or, barring that, at least the members of the newly-formed Western Expatriot Council, which seems to consist entirely of Britons. Prominent Bahraini political scientist 'Abd al-Hadi Khalaf has published an e-mail to the British Club listserv that

ask[s] for [members'] help on a pressing matter. His majesty the King and HRH the Prime Minister have both expressed their wholehearted support for the concept of Expatriate Councils and the Prime Minister now wishes to meet members of the WESTERN expatriate community during this coming week.

The tone comes off as oddly desperate:

We are seeking at least TWO HUNDRED people for the visit and, as a starting point, it would be good if we could get a minimum of TWENTY nominations from each of the following twelve organisations. However, if you get to 20 confirmed names please do not stop there, keep going as there is no upper limit and we really are going to be struggling.

Our motto for the next 8 hours needs to be ‘As many as possible – There is no such thing as too many.’

Speaking of desperation, organizers of the post-al-Wifaq National Dialogue are taking pains to demonstrate that it is still relevant. The Bahrain News Agency is doing its part by proclaiming that participants have reached "a ground breaking consensus" that, according to the Dialogue spokesman, "represents a radical shift in the balance of power, between the democratically elected parliament and the executive branch, in a new commitment by Bahrain to concrete reforms."

What is this "ground breaking," democratizing consensus, you ask? Habib Toumi at the Gulf News explains:

The government will under the proposal require the endorsement of the parliament before taking up office. ...

[P]articipants agreed that the king should choose the prime minister who will select his ministers, a change from the current situation where the monarch appoints the prime minister and the ministers.

A suggestion to choose the prime minister from the party that has the highest number of votes in the quadrennial elections was rejected on the grounds that it would result in deepening sectarianism, the spokesman said.

Participants could not agree on how long ministers can remain in charge of their portfolios.

So, this new "consensus" to improve democracy in fact is a project to institutionalize additional autonomy for the prime minister, whose right-hand man in parliament Khalifah al-Dhaharani just happens to be in charge of the National Dialogue. Interesting. Still, though, I offer $100 to anyone who can explain in the comments section how "choos[ing] the prime minister from the party that has the highest number of votes in the quadrennial elections" would "result in deepening sectarianism." That is what we call a paradox.

Finally, Bahrain's much-heralded truth commission led by Prof. Bassiouni will hold its first public session on July 24 at the National Museum. This location is actually very convenient as the committee can begin its investigation immediately with the post-February firing of Hasan Madan--the head of the very dangerous Progressive Democratic Tribune political society--from his administrative position at the National Museum. You can bet that they'll get right on that.

Update: and on an unrelated note, The Australian (via The Times) is reporting (though with anonymous "sources") that the U.S. is mulling moving the Fifth Fleet out of Bahrain. Somehow I doubt anyone is holding their breath. Update: the Defense Department is now denying this.

Update 2: the posters for al-Wifaq's Friday rally in al-Musalla are in. First we have an appeal to our love for old toothless guys and kids:


Another, if not as heart-wrenching, offers a nice overview of all of the previous rallies. It asks, "Will you be a part of the sixth festival's picture?"


Finally, we have the al-Diraz Youth Movement inviting the new U.S. Ambassador to its own rally in, well, al-Diraz.


I'm sure his attendance would go over really well with the likes of Al Mahmud and Muhammad Khalid.

Better Late Than Never: Al-Wifaq Officially Out of the Dialogue

Ten days ago there was a post here titled, "Al-Wifaq to National Dialogue: We're Out, Baby!" It was prompted by a Bahrain Mirror article suggesting that the group would announce its withdrawal from the National Dialogue later that weekend at a rally in al-Diraz, following heavy criticism of the first week's sessions by 'Isa Qasim, 'Ali Salman, and Khalil al-Marzuq. Obviously, that never happened.

Now, it seems the folks at the Bahrain Mirror were only off by a week or so. As reported everywhere, al-Wifaq today announced its official pull-out of the talks. The AFP quotes Khalil al-Marzuq as saying, "We have tried but without success to make it a serious dialogue." It continues,

In a statement, [al-Wifaq] said the dialogue would "not reach a radical political solution to the crisis in Bahrain but instead complicate the political crisis."

It was "vastly under-represented and marginalised in the dialogue ... whose results have been determined in advance," Al-Wefaq said. It did not want to be linked to a process "whose results could be far removed from the political will."

The full Arabic statement (and not a short one) is posted on the group's news website. The headline reads, "The dialogue team saw that the dialogue will not lead to a political solution to the crisis in Bahrain." And the subtitle: "The al-Wifaq General Secretariat agrees to order the dialogue team to withdrawal."


While the writing has clearly been on the wall since even before the dialogue started--indeed, according to al-Wifaq statements, the only reason they agreed to take part in the first place is because of U.S. pressure--the decision to announce the withdrawal today must have been helped in part by fresh violence over the weekend that left one Sitra woman dead, reportedly from tear gas inhalation when the latter was used to disperse protesters at a so-called "March for Self-Determination." (The Ministry of Interior denies these claims.)

I'm no medical expert, but after seeing the following video from Sitra showing police shooting teargas directly into peoples' homes, it certainly cannot be out of the realm of possibility.



Predictably, further clashes ensued at the funeral procession of the woman, when participants attempted to march again following the burial.

Contemporaneous with the withdrawal of al-Wifaq, the only remaining opposition society in the National Dialogue--the Ibrahim Sharif-less Wa'ad (nobody say al-manbar al-tuqaddami)--has released its own July 17 statement critical of the National Dialogue. Though it falls short of saying it will leave the talks, the statement, posted to opposition forms and probably elsewhere, insists that "the dialogue process is not serious." Of course, since the group was only unbanned days before the dialogue started, and since its leader is serving a 5-year prison term for being a terrorist plotter, it is not exactly in a strong bargaining position vis-a-vis the government. Were it to withdrawal as well, it may find that its newfound status as a legal political society a rather fleeting one.

Finally, we may report some new developments on the anti-U.S., anti-King but still somehow pro-government Sunni front. The first is a second "strongly-worded letter" by Muhammad Khalid to King Hamad (the first is discussed here). According to the Bahrain Mirror, it accuses the king of surrounding himself with "bad advisers." In this "message to the leadership," Khalid insists that, "We are alive. We have a voice, and we won't die"--"we" being, presumably, him and his like-minded fellows at the National Unity Gathering. Further, he called on "our brothers in the intelligence services" to deliver a message to the king that "we have demands, and these are the execution of the law against criminals." The latter is evidently a reference to the recent release of political detainees.

In any case, you get the idea: the letter goes on in this fashion and, once again, its main points are even delivered publicly via Twitter: "What remains of the king's prestige, and that of the country, and of the [Ministry of?] Interior, and of the Law, in the face of the concessions to and [royal] pardons of the traitors... Nothing will work with them [the opposition] save for the fist of the Marshal [BDF Commander-in-Chief Khalifa bin Ahmad], the only one able to overcome them."


Notice, if you will, the first re-Tweeter of Khalid's post. Could it be? Yes! It's our friend Yusuf Al Bin Khalil, which leads us nicely to our final discussion, which is of Al Bin Khalil's newest series in Al-Watan. Having been effectively barred from writing his "Ayatollah Obama" series after a protest from the U.S. Embassy, on July 11 he hit on a new subject matter: the newly-appointed Ambassador to Bahrain, career Foreign Service Officer and former Ambassador to Yemen Thomas Krajeski. These include:

11 July: "Why Don't We Reject the New American Ambassador?"
12 July: "The People Want the Change of the Ambassador," which incidentally is much catchier in Arabic as it rhymes.
13 July: "Duties of the New American Ambassador, Part 1"
14 July: "Duties of the New American Ambassador, Part 2"
15 July: "Duties of the New American Ambassador, Part 3"
16 July: "Duties of the New American Ambassador, Part 4"
17 July: "Duties of the New American Ambassador, Part 5"

All of the latter purport to discuss "the tasks to be handled by the new U.S. ambassador in the case his nomination is accepted by the Government of Bahrain." I see what you did there.

In sum, then, I think we can agree that the entire process of the National Dialogue has succeeded only in further dividing two sides in Bahrain that were already quite far apart. Al-Wifaq is now out of the dialogue, which (assuming it continues) will not end until Ramadan, after which the country will see 40 days or so (including 'Eid) of a political lull. By the time the holiday is over, Bahrain is scheduled to hold almost immediately September by-elections to vote in new parliamentarians to replace those from al-Wifaq, which has already announced its boycott.

Moreover, for its part, the pro-government crowd is not only as staunchly or more staunchly opposed to political concessions to al-Wifaq as it was in February in March, but it is now also pushing hard against the king himself, perceived as too lenient and too beholden to his "bad [American] advisers," as Muhammad Khalid would say.

If there is an easy resolution to this now-multiparty struggle, I am not seeing it.

Update: according to the Gulf Daily News, al-Wifaq's pull-out has "evoked widespread condemnation." Who are these condemning voices, you ask? The article continues:

Bahrain University associate professor in psychology department Dr Nu'man Al Mossawi described the decision to quit as "not wise."

"Not wise" according to an associate professor of psychology at the state university? Booya! In your face, al-Wifaq!

Update 2: Jane Kinninmont analyzes al-Wifaq's exit for Foreign Policy's Mideast Channel. And for The Atlantic Hussein Ibish.

Meanwhile, a parliamentary spokesman is blaming the decision on--who else?--'Ali Khamene'i: "Wefaq has a different agenda," he said. "They want an Islamic state under Wilayet al-Faqih and they received a green light from Tehran to withdraw from the negotiations." Right, right.

Update 3: The National Dialogue (I didn't realize an abstract political process could make its own statements) has somehow released "its" own response to al-Wifaq via the BNA.

Update 4: Wa'ad may be next to call it quits. The GDN story has a hilarious series of quotes from Munira Fakhru, including: "We really have no clue what is next in this process unless a top official explains to us where we are heading." And: "[Y]ou have more than 70 people in each session who are given about three minutes each to share their views."

The Other Side of Radicalization in Bahrain

As noted yesterday, I have a new piece at the Foreign Policy Mideast Channel on the issue of anti-U.S. and anti-regime mobilization among Bahrain's ostensive pro-government constituency. It is largely inspired by the recent post "Obama ♥ Iran: A Love Story, Chapter 2." Enjoy.

For those interested, yesterday's post "Threatening the King" has even more on this front, most of it too recent to have been included in the Foreign Policy article.

Threatening the King

In what the Bahrain Mirror calls "perhaps the harshest letter addressed to the king of Bahrain since the outbreak of the February 14 crisis," former Health Ministry employee-turned-National Unity Gathering adviser 'Adal 'Ali 'Abdallah has "threatened King Hamad that he might lose his popularity in the event he continues what ['Abdallah] calls 'satisfying the Americans for the sake of the throne.'"

He is said to have written, "O King, to satisfy the Americans for the sake of the throne will only increase your distance from your people; nor will the Americans be satisfied by your attempt to buy them [i.e., the Shi'a] off."

In this latest bad omen for King Hamad, not only did 'Abdallah make no effort to sugar-coat this overt threat, but indeed he even transmitted it publicly over Twitter:

In his open letter decrying the king's appeasement of the Americans, 'Abdallah was joined by Muhammad Khalid, who sent a similar message. The Bahrain Mirror offers details of his own "angry letter," which is quoted as saying, "Your appeasement of the Americans, who have increased treachery and hate for you, has distanced you from those who honor and mentor you." Note that the Arabic word for "mentor" here [ناصح] can also mean "uncle." Coincidence?

This comes less than a week after a strongly-worded oration at the National Unity Gathering's rally last weekend in Busaiteen, where 'Abd al-Latif Al Mahmud warned, "If the regime [i.e., King Hamad] is too weak to stand up to the U.S., they need to declare that so people can have their say."

Today's letters seem to have been prompted by the recent quiet release of several hundred political detainees, including the well-publicized poet Ayat al-Qurmezi, and rumors that higher-level opposition leaders are next on the list. (Note, though, that the actual charges against al-Qurmezi and the others released seem not to have been dropped). Hard-line Sunnis see the moves as tantamount to royal pardons, with which King Hamad has been liberal in the past.

That King Hamad has been unable to put a stop to such rhetoric--either the constant attacks on the U.S. Embassy and president, or these explicit public criticisms of himself--would seem a bad sign for those hoping for a moderate leadership in Bahrain. The more hawkish members of the royal family, and their popular supporters as represented by the National Unity Gathering, seem to be making a strong play for the king's position.

On exactly this topic I have a forthcoming article in (probably tomorrow's) Foreign Policy Mideast Channel. So I'll leave this posting short for now.

Finally, on an unrelated note, last week's article about al-Wifaq's impending pull-out of the National Dialogue seems to have missed the mark only in its timing. There are now several reports suggesting that the group will end its Dialogue experiment sometime next week, not least on account of Jasim al-Sa'idi's use of an anti-Shi'a slur (rafidah) during a discussion session yesterday (you keep it classy, al-Sa'idi), which prompted an al-Wifaq walk-out. No word whether anyone from al-Wifaq retorted with the nickname common among al-Sa'idi's detractors, shaikh al-mujannasin: "shaikh of the naturalized [Bahrainis]."

Really, it's difficult to see how someone seemingly so reasonable could make such comments. Oh, wait, that's right:


Update: Meanwhile, this week's edition of al-Wifaq's ongoing "Our National Demands" political festival (last week's focused on an elected government) will center around the demand for non-gerrymandered (their euphemism is "just") electoral districts--as compared to, say, the current ones, crafted exactly around Sunni-Shi'i lines:



As per the attractive flier below, this fifth rally will be held tomorrow, Friday, at 5:00pm in Bilad al-Qadim.


The U.S. Embassy demonstration notice also mentions Sitra, so perhaps the February 14 people have something going on there as well.

Obama ♥ Iran: A Love Story, Chapter 2

I honestly don't have time to be writing all of these updates, but this one is just too good to pass up. Readers may recall our May 22 article, "Obama ♥ Iran: A Love Story," which highlighted the anti-U.S. backlash of pro-government Bahrainis following Obama's criticism of the post-February 14 crackdown during his much-hyped speech on the Middle East. (If you haven't seen it, you may wish to check it out just for the hilarious photoshops of Obama alone, such as the one to the left.)

Well, the Obama-bashing (and general U.S.-bashing) is now back in full swing, with similar hilarity ensuing. For those who visit regularly, you know that one of our favorite past-times here is to keep up to date with the musings of Al-Watan's anti-American rhetorician extraordinaire, Yusif Al Bin Khalil, whose long-running serial "Washington and the Sunna of Bahrain" has recently been spurned in favor of an even better and more subtly-titled series: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain." This column, which has run almost every day since June 26, includes the following variations:

26 June: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: The Principle of Exporting the [American?] Revolution"
27 June: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: Strategic Ignorance"
28 June: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: The Saudi Neighborhood"
29 June: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: The American [Naval] Base in Juffair"
30 June: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: The Security Vacuum"
2 July: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: Manufacturing Extremism in Manama"
3 July: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: Washington's Instructions for al-Wifaq"
4 July: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: We're Not Better than the Americans"
5 July: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: [U.S. Operation] Dawn [in Fallujah] and [GCC Shield Operation] al-Faruq [in Bahrain]"
6 July: "Ayatollah Obama and Bahrain: Washington's Enemies"

The nice thing about these articles is that you don't even have to read them in order to figure out the main point. And if you read the title and still can't predict the rest of the argument, you need only read the first sentence. The last article titled "Washington's Enemies," for example, begins: "Does American President Barack Obama want the countries of the GCC to be the foremost enemies of the United States, historically-speaking?" Enough said.

Not surprisingly, such ravings have caught the attention of the U.S. Embassy, which has petitioned Bahrain's Information Affairs Agency (English here) to put an end to the "Ayatollah Obama" articles. But this effort is being resisted by the Bahraini Society of Journalists, which insists that Al Bin Khalil

did not defame either directly or indirectly the character of the [U.S.] president or degrade [him], but dealt objectively with [U.S.] foreign policy, which does not conflict with the freedom of expression guaranteed by the Constitution; nor [does it conflict with] the [Bahraini press law], which [i.e., freedom of the press] has been in place in the United States of America for a long time.

Now, Al Bin Khalil is striking back with a retort of his own, writing a new article today that mocks the Embassy's pressure. Titled "Dear Obama: This is How You Curb Freedom in Bahrain" (full English translation here, though not mine), the piece expresses "surprise" at

the stance of the U.S. Embassy in refusing freedom of expression in Bahrain; a freedom which we enjoy since the launch of the reform project by the King. This leads us to ask more questions about how serious Washington is about promoting/spreading freedom and reforms in Bahrain and the region?

And it ends with a "plea" and warning of sorts:

[I hope] you will understand my point of view and intervene to stop pressures of the U.S. Embassy on the freedom of expression in Bahrain. Meanwhile, I will start a new series monitoring and analyzing the roles played by the U.S. Embassy in Manama, to reach a deeper and a common understanding of the American-Bahraini relations to better serve our common interests.

Yet this Obama-Iran Love Story is not just about Yusif Al Bin Khalil. At a pro-government rally today in Busaiteen--a counter-point to al-Wifaq's festival in Karranah--one heard a similar tale of U.S. interference in Bahraini affairs, and more overt warnings about the consequences of this. National Unity Gathering leader Sh. 'Abd al-Latif Al Mahmud told listeners (full audio here) that, among other things, it is the United States that divided Bahrain into Sunnis and Shi'is, just as it had done in Iraq. And, he said,

If the regime is too weak to stand up to the US, they need to declare that so people can have their say.

And if the regime needs a third rally [the first two being at the al-Fatih Mosque], this time in front of the US embassy, the people are ready. If the US is threatening to withdraw its troops and the facilities it gives to Bahrain then to hell with these troops and facilities. We are ready to live in famine to protect our dignity.

The title of the Al-Watan article covering the event (English alternative here) offers an apt summary: "Al Mahmud: We Will Not Sell Our Nation [to the U.S.], and We Won't Give in to American Pressure."

In fact, though, all one need do to appreciate the tone and purpose of the event is to see its decorations, which include a 15-foot-wide banner directly behind the speakers' stage bearing the flags of "The Conspirators against the Arab Gulf": the U.S., al-Wifaq, Hizballah, and Iran, and the message: "Bahrain of the Al Khalifa: God Save Bahrain from Traitors."


What's that? You say you didn't realize they were all in cahoots? Well, get with the program! And read on.

In an interview with Egyptian journalists that he obviously didn't think anyone would bother watching or recording, the BDF Commander-in-Chief Marshall Khalifah bin Ahmad

confirmed that the events of Bahrain [i.e., the February uprising] was by all measures a conspiracy involving Iran with the support of the U.S., [which is] trying to draw a new [strategic] map [of the region] [as] revealed by Condoleezza Rice in hearings before Congress for approval of her 2005 appointment as secretary of state, when she talked about regime change in the Middle East [and] talked about the notion of ​"creative chaos."

He added: "More important than the differences between the U.S. and Iran are their wide-ranging common interests in various areas that take aim at the Arabs."

If this isn't crazy enough for you, a new 15-minute "documentary" is circulating through the Intertubes titled "The Economic Hitman," which purports to tell the story of the "Secret Plan to Overthrow the Bahraini Regime" orchestrated by--you guessed it--Amreeka. Narrated by the Stephen Hawking character from Family Guy, the video really is a see-it-to-believe-it situation.


The video's accusations side, the immediate cause of this resurgence in America-hating among Bahrain's pro-government folks is not obvious. Certainly, there have been reports of meetings between al-Wifaq and U.S. Embassy representatives, and al-Wifaq has made clear (as did this Financial Times story) that it was persuaded to participate in the National Dialogue only by the argument of the State Department that it would appear unreasonable and unwilling to compromise if it did not. But even this would only put the U.S. somewhere around a 3 on the Dick Cheney Scale of Meddling (where 10 equals Dick Cheney-esque levels of international interference).


It could be that the more hard-line elements of the regime are attempting to embarrass or question the tactics of the king and his barely-ruling faction. Hence, perhaps, Al Mahmud's suggestion that "If the regime is too weak to stand up to the US, they need to declare that so people can have their say." And so on. Whatever the case, this campaign would seem a short-sighted strategy, particularly given the failing health of the Saudi monarch as well as the crown prince and long-time defense minister Sultan bin 'Abd al-Aziz, who just days ago had yet another surgery in New York. (I guess the Saudis are not so mad about the U.S. stance in Egypt that they've stopped using our medical facilities.)

Certainly, the current Saudi generation has shown unwavering enthusiasm for the GCC military effort in Bahrain, but in a few short years they may well be consumed by internal royal matters (see this great Foreign Policy piece by Simon Henderson) and less worried about carrying out an interventionist regional policy. At which point the pro-government Bahraini dream of a permanent GCC base staffed by prospective new members Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt(?) will seem a long way off indeed. And, if an emboldened Iran were to seek to take advantage of a Saudi Arabia in political transition, a U.S. navy base in Juffair might start to sound not so bad.

Update: Al Bin Khalil's latest offering is now online. He seems to have followed through on his promise to Obama to "monitor[] and analyz[e] the roles played by the U.S. Embassy in Manama." The new article is titled "Backbone of the Embassy: Israelis in Manama." And his Twitter post announcing the new piece is even more explicit: "Who is it that runs the American Embassy in Manama: Washington or Tel Aviv?"

The story now is also beginning to get a bit of English coverage. The indispensable Habib Toumi at the Gulf News has written a good overview, including the official response of the Embassy to Al Bin Khalil's charges that he is being muzzled.

Update 2: The Bahrain Mirror (its recent false report about al-Wifaq leaving the dialogue notwithstanding) has an article today that purports to give further details about the organized anti-U.S. Embassy campaign of which Al Bin Khalil's Al-Watan column forms but one part.


Update 3: Al Bin Khalil's newest offering: "Why Don't We Reject the New American Ambassador [to Bahrain]?"--i.e., career FSO and former ambassador to Yemen Thomas Krajeski.

As one of his Twitter followers says of the piece, "Al Bin Khalil presents in his article important reasons to reject the new American ambassador in Bahrain, who will not serve to strengthen relations but to intervene even more in local affairs."