Winning the Battle, Losing the (Media) War

Even as they have succeeded militarily in crushing the pro-democracy protesters (one heard nary a peep yesterday, Friday, for example), yet Bahrain's rulers are clearly losing the war of words--what government opponents have been calling the "جهاد الاعلامي," or "media jihad." A quick Google News search shows that the week's most widely-read articles summarizing recent events, at least from English-speaking newsgoers, are the following:

Bahrain's Calculated Campaign of Intimidation - Christian Science Monitor
Bahrain Wages Unrelenting Crackdown on Shi'ites - Associated Press
The Quiet Crackdown - The Atlantic
Crackdown: Bahrain Goes After the Blogfather - TIME
Bahrain is Still a Miserable, Vicious Dictatorship, By the Way - Slate

And of course not to be excluded is the excellent three-part series by Lee Smith at The Weekly Standard:

Part 1 - The Bahrain Uprising, Saudi Troops, and Husayn the Martyr
Part 2 - Bahrain Falls Mainly on the Shia
Part 3 - Touring Bahrain

That they are being drubbed in the media war is not lost on Bahrain's rulers, who have been attempting to counter activists' organized campaign of international outreach with their own side of the story. The New York Times, for example, ran this government apologia in the early days of the most recent (assuming it isn't just all one big) crackdown.

Then, just a few days ago on March 31, Sh. 'Abd al-Aziz Al Khalifa (who is introduced as "international media adviser, Information Affairs Authority [sic] and former Bahraini ambassador to Great Britain"--that is to say, the best public face the Al Khalifa could find) went on PBS Newshour. Yet even the summary of the interview--"Bahraini Official Defends Crackdown on Protesters"--emphasizes the reactionary nature of the Bahraini government's response. Indeed, a postscript to the article notes, "After the interview concluded, the Associated Press confirmed that Bahraini blogger Mahmoud al-Youssef -- who was arrested early Wednesday -- had been released late Thursday night." Funny coincidence, that.
(The full video of the interview is embedded below.)

Watch the full episode. See more PBS NewsHour.

Yet one might ask why it matters, in the end, whether the Bahraini government comes out of all this looking like a monster or like a puppy dog--so long, that is, as it comes out of the crisis at all. The question, though, is what sort of Bahrain rulers have succeeded in defending. And we need not even talk about the deep social division that is doubtless to remain long after the current crisis has faded.

It is telling that while anti-government protesters are busy spreading via Twitter and Facebook the sorts of links I've summarized above, the most common article circulated by regime supporters is this story in the New York Times, "Bahrain Losing Its Edge as Financial Hub." The Arab News expresses the matter even more clearly: "'Business Friendly Bahrain' Fighting to Save Image." The fear, then, is not that the political tension will become/remain unbearable, but that Bahrain's rulers will have such an economic mess on their hands that even today's supporters will become disillusioned.

Bahrain emerged as the Gulf financial hub when banks and multinationals fled the political uncertainty and eventual open ethno-religious civil war that plagued 1970-80s Lebanon. Bahrain may not have reached the point of civil war, but foreign business leaders have seen this movie before and may not wish to stay long enough to see how it ends. Especially with plenty of other, seemingly more stable choices but a 30-minute plane-ride away. The Saudis, of course, can always pick up the extra tab--they already fund some 60% of Bahrain's annual budget--yet Bahrain's economic and social landscapes, both premised to a large degree on the presence of Westerners and other Gulf Arabs looking for a good time (if you know what I mean), will be dramatically changed.

Bahrain cannot afford to bleed out in this media war any longer. Expect some steps toward "dialogue" sooner rather than later.

Update: Things are now becoming desperate it seems. The government has "suspended" the final remaining non-governmental newspaper in Bahrain, Al-Wasat and has blocked its website from inside Bahrain. This article summarizes what happened: "A programme on Bahrain TV last night detailed a report listing the 'unprofessional and unethical practices' committed by Al Wasat, which were characterised by 'lies, defamation and plagiarism.'" So essentially an expose on government TV "uncovered" the unethical reporting practices of its main rival. Go figure.

Another Update: This is now covered in a new post here.

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